June 19, 2025Comment(67)

Trillions in Capital Flee India and Rush to China

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The recent surge in interest surrounding Deepseek has sent ripples through both the Chinese and global tech markets. This revolutionary AI application hasn't just captured the imagination of tech enthusiasts; it has also reinvigorated a vast segment of China's technology stocks, attracting significant foreign investment and attention. Such a dynamic shift has seen international capital flow into China at remarkable rates, while India, conversely, has witnessed a staggering evaporation of approximately $720 billion from its market within the same period.

This shift raises several crucial questions: Why is there such a stark contrast in the performance of these two Asian giants? What underlying factors contribute to this trend beyond the meteoric rise of Deepseek? As the data points unravel, it becomes apparent that this phenomenon is not solely the result of Deepseek's technological triumph but a reflection of broader economic conditions and investor perceptions.

As we examine this fluctuation, it's essential to recognize the timeline. The end of 2024 and the early part of 2025 marked a pivotal moment when Deepseek emerged onto the scene and quickly garnered widespread attention. The rapid influx of hedge funds into the Chinese stock market was unprecedented, pushing the combined total market capitalization in both onshore and offshore markets to exceed $13 trillion. This liquidity boost has been monumental, facilitating a technical bull market for the Hang Seng Tech Index, which soared impressively during this timeframe.

In stark contrast, India has not only seen its market capital diminish but has suffered significant declines in its stock indexes. The Sensex, one of the leading indices in India, plummeted by over 2,300 points in just five days. Many institutional investors began adjusting their portfolios, which led to a concerning trend of divesting from Indian stocks in favor of increased holdings in promising Chinese alternatives.

It’s worth noting that while the success of Deepseek accounts for a portion of this financial shift, underlying issues had already begun to encourage foreign capital flight from India, which can be traced back to October 2024. These conditions laid the foundation for Deepseek's rise to further amplify these existing dynamics.

At the heart of Deepseek's allure lies its cost-effectiveness compared to its competitors, such as OpenAI. Investors worldwide have begun to recognize that China possesses capable enterprises with significant innovation potential in the AI sector. In fact, the MSCI China Index currently enjoys a trailing P/E ratio of only 11 compared to India's staggering 21. This represents a considerable valuation gap, suggesting that Chinese technology stocks like Alibaba still present considerable untapped value and growth potential. For instance, Alibaba's market capitalization soared by $100 billion within just one month, all while maintaining a lower P/E ratio than its Indian counterparts.

Moreover, the surging interest in Deepseek coincided with a wave of favorable policymaking in China regarding technology commercialization and fortifying the AI sector’s potential. This supportive environment has elevated investor confidence, propelling further capital into the Chinese market.

One should consider that innovation and underlying competitive advantages are imperative for sustained success in the tech industry. Deepseek is merely a glimpse into the broader narrative of China's rising technological prowess. The so-called "Six Little Dragons of Hangzhou," including companies like Shensen Qiusuo and Yushuqike, are thriving in their respective niches, showcasing the strength and future promise of China's tech landscape.

Meanwhile, India, which has seen remarkable economic growth over the last several years—vaulting from the 10th largest economy to the 5th—faces a different reality. The rapid growth has unveiled a complex picture of economic disparities and imbalances. India's economic ascent has often been attributed to its burgeoning service sector, which it proudly exports, alongside Western investment and support. Nevertheless, this profitable duality drew irritation from the U.S. government, leading to significant tensions in trade and investment as observed in December 2024, where substantial capital fled the Indian markets amidst grievances against top Indian industrial players.

The situation worsened significantly following the inauguration of a new American president who imposed hefty tariffs on steel and aluminum imports alongside reciprocal tariffs with global trade partners. These measures have compounded the hardships facing Indian exporters, driving up costs and prompting further capital outflows and currency depreciation. In fact, Prime Minister Modi’s prompt trip to the United States only a month into the new presidency reflects the urgency for resolution over these tariffs, as the U.S. remains one of India’s most crucial trading partners.

However, hopes for tariff exemptions may be unrealistic, given that such punitive measures are often used as leverage in diplomatic negotiations. Thus, without significant reform, reliance on imported goods will keep industry in India economically vulnerable and sensitive to external pressures, making its economic future precarious.

The imperative for India becomes glaringly clear: it must refine its economic structure by bolstering its manufacturing sector. A robust domestic manufacturing base would lessen reliance on foreign goods, thereby insulating the economy from external shocks. Efforts must be directed toward revamping this critical area to ensure sustainable growth and stability.

In conclusion, while Deepseek's momentous rise in China has acted as a catalyst for renewed interest in Chinese technology stocks, the situation in India reveals a landscape fraught with challenges requiring urgent attention. The disparity in attractiveness for foreign investments is indicative not only of market performance but also of the broader economic strategies and policies – both present and future – that will define these two dynamic countries in the years to come.

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